IV. Subscription Forecasts
Compare predictions for your news brand vs. cohorts of similar brands.
| Your brand | Your region | Your target market | Your tenure | Your paywall type | Your content | Your market size | Your sub's base size | Your website size | Your ARPU | Your LTV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brand #11 | Europe/ Middle East/ Africa | National | 2016-2018 | Freemium paywall | News - quality | 2m-10m | 50k-100k | 1.25m-2.5m | below $6 | below $85 |
1. Your brand: Predictions for the change in the total number of digital-only paid subscriptions
Change in the total number of digital-only paid subscriptions, in %, by quarter, as indexed to Q1 2024: historic values for Q1 2019-Q2 2026 and predicted values for Q3 2026 - Q2 2027
Test of the prediction in the last quarter (Q2 2026)
| Actual value | Predicted value | Error in percentage points |
|---|---|---|
| 18.10% | 20.40% | -2.30 pp |
Prediction for the next quarter (Q3 2026)
| Predicted value | Worse case scenario | Best case scenario |
|---|---|---|
| 19.31% | 17.00% | 21.61% |
2. You vs. your cohorts. Predictions for the change in the total number of digital-only paid subscriptions in cohorts of similar brands to yours
Change in the total number of digital-only paid subscriptions, in %, by quarter, as indexed to Q1 2024: predicted values for Q3 2026 - Q2 2027
| Quarter | Your brand | Whole world | Your region | Your target market | Your tenure | Your paywall type | Your content formula | Your market size | Your subs base size | Your website size | Your ARPU | Your LTV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 19.31% | 15.72% | 19.12% | 11.20% | 18.68% | 16.00% | 16.41% | 19.73% | 10.03% | 13.50% | 24.55% | 41.92% |
| Q4 2026 | 20.52% | 16.64% | 20.29% | 11.00% | 19.51% | 17.00% | 17.88% | 20.67% | 9.26% | 14.50% | 27.16% | 46.48% |
| Q1 2027 | 21.75% | 17.58% | 21.48% | 10.80% | 20.35% | 18.01% | 19.38% | 21.61% | 8.49% | 15.52% | 29.82% | 51.19% |
| Q2 2027 | 22.99% | 18.52% | 22.68% | 10.61% | 21.19% | 19.04% | 20.89% | 22.57% | 7.74% | 16.54% | 32.54% | 56.06% |
Methodology notes
We predict future values by extending each series' average quarterly growth over the last four quarters of historic data. We estimate a prediction error by comparing our forecast with the actual value for the past quarter. The prediction error for the change in the total number of digital-only paid subscriptions for the next quarter is 2.30 percentage points for your brand and a median of 2.63 for cohorts. The worse and best case scenarios are the prediction minus / plus that error.
3. Your brand: Predictions for the change in revenue
Change in revenue, in %, by quarter, as indexed to Q1 2024: historic values for Q1 2019-Q2 2026 and predicted values for Q3 2026 - Q2 2027
Test of the prediction in the last quarter (Q2 2026)
| Actual value | Predicted value | Error in percentage points |
|---|---|---|
| 30.50% | 34.83% | -4.33 pp |
Prediction for the next quarter (Q3 2026)
| Predicted value | Worse case scenario | Best case scenario |
|---|---|---|
| 34.93% | 30.59% | 39.26% |
4. You vs. your cohorts. Predictions for the change in revenue in cohorts of similar brands to yours
Change in revenue, in %, by quarter, as indexed to Q1 2024: predicted values for Q3 2026 - Q2 2027
| Quarter | Your brand | Whole world | Your region | Your target market | Your tenure | Your paywall type | Your content formula | Your market size | Your subs base size | Your website size | Your ARPU | Your LTV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34.93% | 25.85% | 33.06% | 27.42% | 34.55% | 26.82% | 23.70% | 39.29% | 23.81% | 23.22% | 32.71% | 78.15% |
| Q4 2026 | 39.50% | 28.65% | 36.93% | 30.63% | 38.72% | 29.40% | 26.09% | 43.92% | 25.96% | 25.68% | 35.58% | 85.05% |
| Q1 2027 | 44.23% | 31.53% | 40.90% | 33.91% | 43.02% | 32.02% | 28.53% | 48.72% | 28.15% | 28.19% | 38.51% | 92.23% |
| Q2 2027 | 49.13% | 34.46% | 45.00% | 37.28% | 47.45% | 34.70% | 31.01% | 53.67% | 30.38% | 30.76% | 41.50% | 99.68% |
Methodology notes
We predict future values by extending each series' average quarterly growth over the last four quarters of historic data. We estimate a prediction error by comparing our forecast with the actual value for the past quarter. The prediction error for the change in revenue for the next quarter is 4.33 percentage points for your brand and a median of 4.42 for cohorts. The worse and best case scenarios are the prediction minus / plus that error.